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Cenit y declive del principal suministrador de petróleo de Europa: Rusia

Posted by juanjesus en abril 3, 2008

Europa afronta el declive de su principal suministrador de petróleo: cenit  de la producción en Rusia. Las consecuencias económicas de este fenómeno son enormes, debido a la especial importancia que tiene la fragilidad internacional en el suministro de crudo y la creciente competencia por las reservas. Es muy probable que el declive geológico de Rusia implique un declive de exportaciones aún mayor, por lo que el escenario de precios del petróleo más altos en los próximos años es aún más probable.

El 30% del petróleo que consume Europa proviene de Rusia (datos de 2005, de la Comisión Europea). Los siguientes países más importantes son Noruega, con un 17% (en declive de producción desde el año 2000, con una tasa del 7,2%), Arabia Saudí, con un 10,6% (existe un enorme debate sobre la posibilidad inclusive de que este país no pueda incrementar sustancialmente su producción, o que su incremento no sea el que se anuncia oficialmente), Libya, con un 9% (un país con escasa producción, pero que es de los que aún puede incrementarla – como ocurre con Angola, Brasil, y algunos países de la zona del Caspio, según diferentes análisis), e Irán, con el 6,1% (este país alcanzó su cenit de producción en el año 1974, pero tiene grandes reservas que le permiten seguir siendo uno de los grandes productores mundiales de petróleo, con un 5% de la extracción mundial diaria).Así pues, el consumo de petróleo en Europa depende, en un 70% de cinco países, tres de los cuales están en declive, uno en situación de meseta de producción y otro con posibilidades de incrementar su producción (pero no, probablemente, para compensar el declive de los primeros).La economía europea es muy intensiva en consumo de recursos energéticos fósiles. Aunque únicamente posee el 0,6% de las reservas de petróleo conocidas, el 40% de su consumo energético proviene de ese combustible, siendo, con diferencia el principal componente de su “mix energético”. La Unión Europea de los 25 tiene el 7,5% de la población del Mundo, pero consume el 17% de los recursos energéticos del Planeta, lo que le permite ser una de las economías más industrializadas. Sin embargo, su fragilidad energética derivada de las importaciones de petróleo, gas natural, uranio, etc. es importante.

En el caso de Rusia, ya diversos estudios han advertido de que a finales de la primera década del Siglo XXI, este país, que ha llegado a ser inclusive primer productor mundial de petróleo en periodos del año 2007, podría entrar en una situación de meseta y posterior declive. Desde el año 2004, como advierte David Cohen, la producción del país se ha ralentizado, debido a la madurez de muchos de sus yacimientos, considerando el hecho del techo de producción del país un “evento de gran importancia histórica”, porque nos encontraríamos ante el declive geológico de uno de los grandes productores mundiales.

 Información complementaria: www.crisisenergetica.org: Como informa Bloomberg, la producción rusa de petróleo, después de una década de incremento, podría estar ya en declive geológico. La importante noticia ha sido traducida al español por crisis energética, aquí. Con 9,7 millones de barriles diarios (mbd), Rusia fue en 2006 el segundo mayor productor de petróleo del mundo, por detrás de Arabia Saudita. Según declaraciones del Ministro de Recursos Naturales Yuri Trutnev, recogidas por Bloomberg, en 2008 Rusia podría ver caer su producción por primera vez en diez años: Hace dos años, dijimos que la tasa de crecimiento estaba disminuyendo, y esto era malo para Rusia, ¿recuerdan?” dijo Trutnev en los comentarios televisados después de una reunión del Gobierno en Moscú el día de hoy. “Ahora estamos diciendo que la tasa de producción este año está cayendo. No se trata de que viene el coco, por desgracia, esto es real” dijo Trutnev, sin dar un pronóstico mas especifico. Un descenso pondría fin a 10 años con un 58 por ciento de aumento de la producción, que cayó a 6,2 millones de barriles diarios en 1998, cuando los precios cayeron por debajo de los $ 10 por barril y Rusia incumplió con el pago de unos 40 millones de dólares de la deuda interna y devaluó el rublo. De confirmarse, la primera consecuencia de esta caída en la producción, podría ser una caída en las exportaciones de petróleo. Rusia exportó en 2006 una media de 7 mbd, volumen que la convierte en la segunda potencia exportadora de petróleo, de nuevo tras Arabia Saudita. El geólogo Jeff Brown, desde las páginas de The Oil Drum, llama a esto el Export Land Model: la demanda interna, espoleada por la riqueza provocada por los beneficios del comercio de petróleo en los países productores, será un nuevo elemento de presión para las exportaciones, pudiendo alcanzar estas su propio cenit, independiente de la producción total de estos países. En la conferencia de ASPO en Cork, Irlanda, del pasado año, Jeff Rubin, economista jefe de CIBC World Markets, retomaba este argumento para afirmar que los países productores de petróleo se han convertido ya en el segundo mercado mundial de petróleo, con un consumo de unos 12 mbd frente a los 22 mbd del primer mercado, los EE.UU. Rubin afirmaba entonces que las exportaciones rusas estaban a punto de alcanzar su cenit. Por su interés, reproducimos a continuación una traducción del artículo publicado en Bloomberg, realizada por Luis Hanna para Crisis Energética: Actualización: cita del WSJ extraída de The Oil Drum: Russian Oil Output Falls 1.3% in March
2008-04-02 05:28 (New York)
By Torrey Clark
April 2 (Bloomberg) — Russia, the world’s second-largest supplier of crude, produced 1.3 percent less oil in March than a year earlier as output continued to fall at OAO Lukoil, OAO Surgutneftegaz and at Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Sakhalin-1 project. Production dropped to 9.76 million barrels a day (41.3 million tons) last month from 9.89 million barrels a day in March 2007, according to data released late yesterday by CDU TEK, the dispatch center for the Energy Ministry in Moscow. Compared with February, production fell 0.3 percent. . . . Exports fell 3.9 percent compared with March last year. . .La Producción de Petróleo Rusa puede caer en 2008 por primera vez en el decenio Por Greg Walters Marzo 27 (Bloomberg) – La producción de petróleo Rusa puede caer este año por primera vez en una década, al tiempo que el segundo mayor proveedor del mundo lucha contra el aumento de los costos y campos cada vez mas difíciles de explotar, dijo el Ministro de Recursos Naturales Yuri Trutnev. “Hace dos años, dijimos que la tasa de crecimiento estaba disminuyendo, y esto era malo para Rusia, ¿recuerdan?” dijo Trutnev en los comentarios televisados después de una reunión del Gobierno en Moscú el día de hoy. “Ahora estamos diciendo que la tasa de producción este año está cayendo. No se trata de que viene el coco, por desgracia, esto es real” dijo Trutnev, sin dar un pronóstico mas especifico. Un descenso pondría fin a 10 años con un 58 por ciento de aumento de la producción, que cayó a 6,2 millones de barriles diarios en 1998, cuando los precios cayeron por debajo de los $ 10 por barril y Rusia incumplió con el pago de unos 40 millones de dólares de la deuda interna y devaluó el rublo. Las previsiones de Trutnev contradicen las del Ministerio de Energía, que prevé un incremento del 1,8 por ciento a 10 millones de barriles diarios de crudo y condensado de gas, o aproximadamente el 11 por ciento del consumo mundial. La Agencia Internacional de Energía, que asesora a 27 países industrializados, espera que la demanda aumente en 2 por ciento este año a 87,54 millones de barriles al día. El Banco de Inversiones Credit Suisse Group se sumó hoy al UralSib Financial Corp con sede en Moscú en la previsión de una disminución anual de la producción Rusa, después de que la producción haya caído en enero y febrero. “Difícil comienzo” “El difícil comienzo del año ha señalado que la situación en el sector petrolero de Rusia es tal vez mucho más desafiante de lo que las principales compañías petroleras integradas creían a finales del pasado año.” los analistas de Credit Suisse Vadim Mitroshin y Lev Snykov escribieron en una nota a los clientes el día de hoy. La producción cayó 0,7 por ciento en enero y el 0,9 por ciento en febrero, a 9,79 millones de barriles diarios, en comparación con los mismos meses del año pasado, según datos del Ministerio de Energía. Arabia Saudita es el mayor productor mundial de petróleo crudo. Credit Suisse, con base en Zúrich, dijo que ahora espera que la producción caiga un 0,5 por ciento, después de anteriormente haber previsto un aumento 0,7 por ciento. “La producción nacional ha alcanzado una meseta y en tierra la producción parece estar en declive” dijo por teléfono desde Moscú Ronald Smith, estratega jefe de Alfa Bank. Smith y Chris Weafer de UralSib se encuentran entre los analistas que predicen que el gobierno se verá obligado a recortar los impuestos sobre la industria, su principal fuente de ingresos, para reactivar la producción. El Ministro de Finanzas Alexei Kudrin propuso esta semana cortar los impuestos de extracción en 100 mil millones de rublos ($ 4,2 mil millones) al año para ayudar a financiar la exploración y el desarrollo. “Consideramos que es muy probable que el gobierno introducirá una serie de incentivos fiscales este año para impulsar el gasto enel sector upstream” dijo Weafer en un informe del 6 de Febrero. “El estado no quiere ver la producción entrar en una fase de declive.” El Presidente de Rosneft, Sergei Bogdanchikov, llamo al actual sistema fiscal ”demasiado duro” en agosto. Exportación, extracción y otros impuestos deben reducirse o las empresas no tendrán ningún incentivo para desarrollar nuevos campos, incluso en el Ártico, dijo Alexander Dyukov Presidente de OAO Gazprom Neft el 4 de Febrero. Para ponerse en contacto con el reportero de esta historia: Greg Walters en Moscú gwalters1@bloomberg.net Bloomberg: Russian Oil Output May Fall for First Time in Decade in 2008 By Greg WaltersMarch 27 (Bloomberg) — Russian oil output may fall this year for the first time in a decade as the world’s second-biggest supplier struggles with rising costs and harder-to-reach fields, Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev said. “Two years ago, we said the growth rate was falling, and we said this was bad for Russia, remember?” Trutnev said in televised remarks after a government meeting in Moscow today. “Now we’re saying the production rate is falling this year. This is not a bogeyman, unfortunately, this is real,” Trutnev said, without giving a specific forecast. A decline would end a 10-year, 58 percent surge in production, which fell to 6.2 million barrels a day in 1998, when prices dipped below $10 a barrel and Russia defaulted on about $40 billion of domestic debt and devalued the ruble. Trutnev’s outlook contradicts that of the Energy Ministry, which expects an increase of 1.8 percent to 10 million barrels a day of crude and gas condensate, or about 11 percent of world consumption. The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 industrialized nations, expects demand to rise 2 percent this year to 87.54 million barrels a day. Investment bank Credit Suisse Group today joined Moscow- based UralSib Financial Corp. in forecasting an annual decline in Russian production after output slid in January and February. `Difficult Start’ “The difficult start to the year indicated that the situation in the Russian oil sector is perhaps much more challenging than major integrated oil companies believed at the end of last year,” Credit Suisse analysts Vadim Mitroshin and Lev Snykov wrote in a note to clients today. Output fell 0.7 percent in January and 0.9 percent in February, to 9.79 million barrels a day, compared with the same months last year, according to Energy Ministry data. Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest producer of crude oil. Zurich-based Credit Suisse said it now expects output to fall 0.5 percent, after earlier predicting a 0.7 percent rise. “National production has reached a plateau and onshore production appears to be in decline,” said Ronald Smith, chief strategist at Alfa Bank, by phone in Moscow today. Smith and UralSib’s Chris Weafer are among analysts predicting the government will be forced to cut taxes on the industry, its biggest source of income, to revive production. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin this week proposed cutting extraction taxes by 100 billion rubles ($4.2 billion) a year to help finance exploration and development. “We consider it very likely that the government will introduce a series of tax breaks this year to boost upstream spending,” Weafer said in a report on Feb. 6. “The state will not want to see production go into a declining phase.” Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Sergei Bogdanchikov called the current tax system “too harsh” in August. Export, extraction and other taxes must be cut or companies won’t have any incentive to develop new fields, including in the Arctic, OAO Gazprom Neft CEO Alexander Dyukov said on Feb. 4. To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Walters in Moscow gwalters1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 27, 2008 09:29 EDT 

ASPO – USA: For Russia, An End To Growth is In Sight

 

Written by Dave Cohen   
Wednesday, 15 August 2007
I intend to live forever. So far, so good.
      — Comedian Stephen Wright
Russia‘s resurgent oil production has fueled growth outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC) since 1999. The end is now likely in sight for yearly increases from the Federation. Growth has slowed since 2004, and although most analysts expect increases to continue in the near term, Russia is poised to peak or plateau sometime in the 2010-2012 period. If you are concerned about peak oil, it is necessary to track events in the world’s largest oil producer. The eventual outcome is uncertain, but a peak in Russia’s oil production in the medium-term seems all but assured.The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) data has Russia’s 2007 oil production at 9.846 million barrels per day (b/d, 5-month average), where oil includes crude, condensate, and natural gas liquids. Their graph (left) shows the longer trend. Production is expected to surpass 10 million b/d sometime this year. The Paris-based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report anticipates slower growth in Russia’s production. Output peaks at 10.61 million barrels a day in 2011 (3rd graph down, left) and declines in 2012. The IEA qualifies their forecast, saying that “extrapolating a decline in Russian production in the longer term [after 2011] would be … premature before examining post-2012 prospects (field developments) in detail.” The Russian Ministry of Economic Development does not feel the same need for caution. Pravda’s Stable oil production to make Russia world’s leading economic power by 2020 (July 25, 2007) reports that the ministry expects oil output to stabilize at 10.6 million b/d (530 million tons per year) sometime in the future.Russia is unusual nowadays in that almost all of their production is inland. TNK-BP’s 2006 Annual Report (graph left) shows how Russia’s production growth has moderated over the last four years when offshore developments (mostly Sakhalin) are excluded. Russia’s future output depends on the usual competition between managing dwindling production in old depleting fields and putting new oil projects on-stream. Sufficient investment must be available to support both activities.Vladimir Putin’s government has two conflicting goals. The Federation must encourage oil exploration and production (E&P) while taxing the produced oil to maintain government revenues. Russia’s Oil Tax (Forbes, June 15, 2007) reports on this juggling act.The Russian government has sought to maximize the benefits of the country’s oil wealth through a mixture of taxation and direct intervention. As oil prices have increased, government take has grown, although there are signs that high marginal tax rates, coupled with uncertainty over future policy, has dampened the level of production growth. The government has also sought to capture more value from the processing of crude oil through the use of export duties though this strategy may lead to problems in the future…Policy regarding oil … has been to encourage indigenous companies but also maximize the state’s share of revenue, while keeping domestic prices as low as possible.Russia constantly adjusts the Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) rate formula and the duties paid on exports based on the West Siberia Urals blend price to keep the right balance. Russian oil companies (Whiskey & Gunpowder) are always lobbying (Moscow Times, August 8, 2007) to get the tax rates decreased so that more of their profits can be plowed back into E&P. From the Times:A growing chorus of industry participants, including LUKoil’s CEO Vagit Alekperov and Alfa Bank analyst Dmitry Loukashov, is calling for lower taxes to facilitate investment and new production. Russia has seen output growth slump to less than 3 percent last year from 11 percent in 2003 as field development costs have soared, according to British Petroleum.Beyond burdensome tax rates, the Russian oil companies suffer from the same upstream capital costs inflation (ASPO-USA, August 8) that afflicts the world’s oil & gas industry. This is why the IEA cites both an “uncertain investment climate and tight drilling/service capacity” as potentially lethal constraints on new oil developments. The oil price remains favorable for Russian oil companies, but the Urals blend typically trades “at a discount of around $3 to $5 to the benchmark Brent blend” (Moscow Times, August 16, 2005). Russia actually has four export oil blends, and it is possible that one of them, REBCO, could soon replace the Urals benchmark “as the basis for calculating supply prices, export duties and [the] mineral extraction tax” (Ria Novosti, October 10, 2006).Turning now to geological “below ground” factors, the choice of a decline rate in Russia’s existing production base is crucial to predicting their future oil production levels. The IEA based their estimates on a 3% rate, but considered the effects of other values as well (graph left). If a 5% decline rate is used, Russian production never reaches 10.5 million b/d. Assuming steeper rates yields concomitantly lower peak production levels by 2011.The IEA’s assumption about the decline rate is similar to that used in John Grace’s study2 Russian Oil Supply: Performance and Prospects (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2005). The EIA’s Russia Oil Analysis contains Table 1 (graph below left) taken from Grace’s book. The table list selected “pre-peak” and “post-peak” Russian oil fields. The EIA explains —In the upcoming decade, a few major oil fields [Table 1] will contribute to most of Russia’s supply growth and others will offset decreasing production from mature fields. In 2004, around 20 percent (or 1.8 million bbl/d) of Russia’s oil production came from fields that had already produced 80 percent of their total recoverable reserves. Achieving continued growth at post-peak fields will become more problematic as oil companies run out of easy and less costly opportunities to manage the rate of decline. “Pre-peak” fields, which have come online in the last decade, can add between around 1.2-1.5 million bbl/d to Russian supply according to John Grace’s recent analysis of Russia’s oil supply.One of the notes to Table 1 indicates that Grace estimates that the older “post-peak” fields are declining somewhere between 1% and 5% per year. The IEA’s decline rate of 3% lies at the midpoint of this range.A review of Russian’s oil fields reveals a simple fact—there are lots of them. The Table 1 data is by no means complete and is not meant to be. Both the IEA and the EIA mention a number of new projects—not always the same ones—that do not appear there. Examining Russian oil company E&P data provides an excellent way to get a handle on future production in the Federation. The survey that follows is not comprehensive, but it provides enough information to allow an evaluation of Russia’s oil future. Rosneft is likely Russia’s largest oil company now as measured by annual production, given its continuing take over of Yukos’ assets. Output in 2006 “increased by 7.8% to 582.7 million barrels [1.6 million daily] from 540.4 million barrels [1.48 daily] in 2005. Primary growth drivers were Yuganskneftegaz and Severnaya Neft. Yuganskneftegaz is Rosneft’s mainstay development, and includes the Priobskoye, Mamontovskoye, Malobalykskoye and Prirazlomnoye fields, which together make up 80% of reserves there. Prirazlomnoye, along with the Priobskoye field listed by Grace, are cited by both the EIA and IEA as sources of growth. Rosneft states the remaining proved reserves at Yuganskneftegaz as 10.924 billion barrels. The Severnaya Neft development is very small in comparison. Preliminary numbers for the first half of 2007 indicate that Rosneft has increased production to 1.849 million b/d, a 14.6 increase over 2006. Rosneft is developing the East Siberian Vankor field, which has stated proved SPE reserves of 0.946 billion barrels. The first commercial oil flows are scheduled for 2008, but that date seems wildly optimistic. This project is supposed to make Transneft’s Siberian Pacific Pipeline viable, but “plans to build an oil pipeline to the Pacific coast will most likely remain on hold until at least 2015, waiting for the development of east Siberian fields,” according to Deputy Industry and Energy Minister Andrei Dementyev. This is a chicken and egg problem, so stay tuned. Rosneft also has shares in Sakhalin stage I and is developing stage III with China’s Sinopec. Production at Sakhalin was 0.274 million b/d in the first half of 2007, and is scheduled to increase to 0.420 million b/d by 2010 (St. Petersburg Times, August 10, 2007). It is reasonable to expect more growth from Rosneft in the near term.The LUKOIL Group produced 1.84 million b/d in Russia during 2006 if one includes all affiliate partial shares. This output was 3.7% higher than in 2005, and 7.6% higher than 2004. LUKOIL, along with its partner ConocoPhillips (30%), expects to get an additional 200 thousand b/d from expansion of its Timan-Pechora developments in the 2010-2011 period. They are currently producing 279 thousand barrels a day in the region. Both the EIA and IEA cite this development as a source of continuing Russian production growth. LUKOIL’s 2006 discovery of the Filanovsky field in the Russian sector of the North Caspian, which contains an estimated 600 million barrels of proved and probable oil reserves, will likely add to the company’s production in the next decade. Insufficient information is available to evaluate the longer term outlook for LUKOIL’s existing production base, but the company’s output is still increasing.Unlike political favorite Rosneft, TNK-BP and Tafneft have the hard job of maintaining and expanding production in Russia’s oldest oil-producing basins. Tatneft operates the aging giant Romashkino in Tartarstan along with some other smaller old fields. Accordingly, their report reveals that “due to the relative maturity of the Company’s main producing fields, approximately 44.3% (11.3 million tons) of all crude oil was produced using various enhanced recovery techniques.” Nearly flat yearly production stood at 0.514 million b/d in 2006, with an unknown proportion of that coming from Romashkino, which Grace lists as producing 0.295 million b/d in 2004. Geology is the implacable foe in Tartarstan—time is not on Tafneft’s side.The production picture is more complicated at TNK-BP. This joint venture operates in Western Siberia, Russia’s most mature oil basin. TNK-BP’s crude oil output is decreasing according to the company’s data. Production stood at 1.419 million b/d in June, 2007. Average daily production was 1.501 million b/d in 2006 but was already below that level in the final 3 months of that year. Output was 1.569 million b/d in 2005. Gas condensate production is also down in 2007. Although their production is not falling off a cliff, TNK-BP is not meeting the goal stated in its 2006 annual report—We expect that production will be broadly flat through to 2009, but will grow thereafter due to the development of a number of greenfield [new] projects. The Company continues to focus on efficient growth of production volumes at our mature (brownfield) oil fields located largely in Western Siberia.Grace’s data indicates that Samotlor—one of the world’s great oil fields, now considerably past its prime—was still producing 0.974 million b/d in 2004. TNK-BP operates the field through two of its subsidiaries, Samotlorneftegaz  and TNKNiznevartovsk. Adding these together, the data indicates that Samotlor’s production was only 0.628 million b/d in 2006, which was about 40% of the company’s total output. The field has very high water cuts. TNK-BP’s 2007 brochure reveals that the number of horizontal wells and sidetracks rose considerably after 2003. They are now drilling multilateral wells to maintain production levels at Samotlor and elsewhere in Western Siberia. After 2009, TNK-BP expects their new “greenfield” developments to boost production. TNK-BP hopes the largest of these, Uvat, will produce 200 thousand b/d by 2020, but the project will only break even at $40/barrel (Reuters, June 4, 2007).Where is Russian oil production headed? Russia’s “post-peak” fields, which accounted for 2.4 million b/d in 2004, are mostly depleted. Samotlor is in steep decline. As the old production base erodes, new oil from Sakhalin, Yuganskneftegaz, Timan-Pechora and elsewhere will offset declines and stimulate modest growth in the near term. The IEA’s choice of a 3% baseline decline rate seems generous, however. Most of Russia’s oil production still comes from its most mature basins, West Siberia and the Volga/Urals. Russia’s oil companies must deal with onerous taxation just as inflation eats into their E&P budgets. It is very expensive to manage highly depleted fields. Challenging new projects like Vankor or Uvat come with steep price tags, and will likely face delays.  Prospects at Sakhalin (phases III and IV) remain bright, but it is too early to tell how new discoveries like Filanovsky will turn out.It is uncertain whether Russia will ever see 10.6 million barrels per day. This number appears to be an upper bound on Russia’s post-Soviet production peak. Wherever production crests, it is not obvious how production will be sustained at that level thereafter. The only sure thing is that Russia’s production peak or plateau is now on the horizon. The end of growth in Russia’s oil production is an event of great historical significance. The world should take note, and prepare for the consequences.1. Conversions here are 7.3 barrels per standard ton, or 7.48 barrels per metric ton, if these units are known. The former is the default.
2. If the term “peak” refers in this context to the high point of oil production—over 12.5 million b/d—in the former Soviet Union during the late 1980’s, then the usage is confusing. The term “pre-peak” should be “post-peak” and vice versa.
The author has not read Grace’s book.

 

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